Notre Dame football is conference realignments biggest prize. Can NBC keep it independent?

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — The last time Notre Dame re-upped with NBC, the school negotiated as a national title contender and ratings darling at the epicenter of conference realignment.

The football program had just completed its first undefeated regular season in almost a quarter century, consuming the sport’s oxygen in the process in 2012. The Irish averaged 4.4 million viewers for their high-wire act home slate. The season finale at USC on ABC hit 16.1 million viewers, quadrupling the Iron Bowl and almost doubling Ohio State–Michigan.

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Notre Dame was appointment viewing.

The school had also finished its shrewd move to the ACC, taking the football program there part-time and just about everything else there in full amid a series of moves by the Big Ten, ACC, Big East and others.

And so NBC re-signed Notre Dame on April 18, 2013, in the best of times, dropping the news during the Blue-Gold Game as the late Louis Nix scored on a quarterback sneak. The 10-year extension through the 2025 season was a departure from the five-year deals the school and network had matter-of-factly signed since Notre Dame forced the entire sport to rethink media rights when it quit the College Football Association in 1991 for a reported $38 million contract with NBC. That first deal was a market disruptor, a path for Notre Dame to charge ahead. The new deal, believed to be in the neighborhood of $25 million annually, was a market codifier, a means for Notre Dame to hold serve.

“It became apparent to me how they viewed Notre Dame and how important it was to them and how much they valued it,” said athletic director Jack Swarbrick. “They always talked about the brands that they worked with: the Olympics, the NFL, Notre Dame. We were always included in that.”

The true value of the Notre Dame-NBC contract has always been its partnership. What has been good for school has been good for network. Yet, economic forces have changed in the past decade. If geography drove the last round of realignment, now brand strength pays the bills.

And that leads Notre Dame and NBC to a different kind of negotiation, one that’s already begun.

How much television money would it take for Notre Dame to be able to afford independence while also making sure NBC could afford Notre Dame? It’s an answer that impacts not just Notre Dame, but virtually the entire sport.

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Notre Dame is still a tent-pole property for NBC, but it’s no longer the only circus in town, with the media landscape unrecognizable from the one Swarbrick negotiated in a decade earlier. The English Premier League is on a nearly $3 billion deal with NBC, filling weekends on the network and even more space on streaming platform Peacock. This fall, the Big Ten will join the party, providing prime-time programming for NBC as part of a bigger $8 billion multi-network contract with the conference.

Last season’s Notre Dame home slate averaged 2.43 million viewers, not including the unpublished viewership for the Peacock-only game against UNLV. Until now, this was all fine for Notre Dame. It didn’t need to treat NBC as an ATM for the athletic department; it just needed a reliable partner to keep its foundation up to code.

For most of the past decade, Notre Dame maintaining independence came down to three things: a broadcast partner for football, a home for its Olympic sports and access to the national championship, whether that was the BCS, the four-team College Football Playoff or the 12-team iteration Swarbrick helped design. Check those three boxes, and Notre Dame could afford to pay the independent tax that comes with eschewing conference membership, even if that meant making less from media rights than Purdue or Vanderbilt.

But yesterday’s price is not today’s price. And Notre Dame can’t pay bills with the prestige or exposure that comes from an NBC contract if renewed.

It probably won’t have to.

If the investment in Big Ten football didn’t tip NBC’s hand about going big into college football, Notre Dame’s hiring of NBC Sports chairman and alumnus Pete Bevacqua to replace the retiring Swarbrick would have. Sources on both sides have struggled to envision a scenario in which a deal doesn’t get done after Notre Dame entered an early negotiating window with NBC when the Big Ten deal triggered a clause in the contract. (It hit pause on talks until Bevacqua begins his new job later this month in advance of Swarbrick’s departure next spring.)

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Getting to the finish line from here is not uncomplicated. But it is essential, especially for Notre Dame to remain competitive in independence, meaning conference realignment’s biggest free agent stays unattached.

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“When I use the phrase ‘committed media partner,’ I was always intending to communicate financially too,” Swarbrick said. “It’s the promotion of us. It’s the positioning of us on Saturday.

“And it’s the money.”

The price of independence

The maneuvering of the Big Ten and SEC has escalated Notre Dame’s cost of independence.

In the past, Swarbrick has said Notre Dame would make more money off media rights as a full member of the ACC, which paid Notre Dame $17 million last year as a partial member. That’s the same league that athletic directors at Clemson and Florida State have been saber rattling as revenue gaps become financial chasms with the Big Ten and SEC.

The Big Ten’s new deal is expected to begin by paying out around $64 million per school and rise from there as USC and UCLA join the league. The SEC just quintupled the media rights for its marquee game, dropping CBS for ESPN on a 10-year, $3 billion deal before Texas and Oklahoma were added. That’s after the league paid each school $49.9 million last year, with some high-end projections forecasting that figure to double this decade.

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Meanwhile, the ACC distributed $39.4 million to member schools in 2021-22. And the league’s schools are stuck in a grant of rights agreement through 2036, essentially capping their financial trajectory.

“The changing media landscape, and trying to make sure we still have the sort of positioning NBC has afforded us, it’s all different and more complex. It’s the SEC deal, it’s the Big Ten deal,” Swarbrick said. “You see the dynamic going on in college athletics, otherwise right now where people are struggling.”

That doesn’t exclude Notre Dame.

When the belt-tightening of COVID-19 hit, Notre Dame was already looking to its next media rights deal as a financial safety valve. Internally, athletic department officials coined the phrase “Survive Until ’25” as a shorthand operating procedure, meaning Notre Dame needed to restrain today under the premise the department could return to solid financial ground after the next NBC deal was signed.

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William Mao won’t put an exact number on it, but the senior vice president of Octagon Global Media Rights Consulting knows how these contracts work. His company has done deals with the NFL, MLB, NASCAR, WWE and 18 international soccer leagues. And from a distance, there are paths both Notre Dame and NBC can take to negotiate a deal that ends with a win-win.

When asked if a $60 million deal would make mutual economic sense, Mao didn’t disagree.

“If both sides were talking ranges, that’s an area of positive outcome,” he said. “Keeping and retaining the Notre Dame package, that was part of the package pitches for the Big Ten package. Plenty of that provides Notre Dame leverage. Longstanding partnerships and legacy relationships usually continue.”

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The value Notre Dame places on being Independent

A second sports media consultant, who would speak only on background due to the sensitivity of negotiations, believed a $60 million agreement for Notre Dame’s next NBC deal would be in the ballpark of current market value. Privately, Notre Dame hopes to at least double its current media rights deal with NBC, with internal perspective that the school must be within “striking distance” of the SEC and Big Ten financially. Revenue from the ACC Network has been slightly better than forecast to date. And hitting analysts’ projections of $60 million would seem to make Notre Dame whole.

“It’s Notre Dame. It’s the whale. It’s what everybody wants,” said the anonymous media consultant. “After so many years, why change now? It’s kind of like the Masters and CBS. It’s just one of those things that is just kind of there and it’s expected. You don’t wake up thinking the Masters went somewhere else for a few dollars more.”

So if Notre Dame and NBC want to be together, how do they afford it?

That’s where the partnership between school and network can play a lead role.

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How Notre Dame can help NBC

Notre Dame has put one regular-season game on Peacock each of the past two seasons, but they were against Toledo and UNLV. When NBC initially reached out about a streaming-only broadcast, Swarbrick encouraged the network to go bigger. He didn’t offer up USC, but he felt games against ACC opponents should be considered. NBC declined. This year’s Peacock game is Central Michigan.

“From the NBC side, having more of that content available on their streaming service, that drives the value proposition of sub acquisition and maybe more so in this case retention,” Mao said. “If and when games are more exclusive, is that something that’s part of the conversation? If you want the economics and you’re seeking properties, not just in the college space, that can become more valuable, Peacock is obviously a lever to pull. The question is if you’re willing to pull it.”

Swarbrick argues for Peacock as part of the NBC deal but admits it’s been a learning experience. He cited the broadcast coming back from commercial breaks too late, missing live action. The lag time in game broadcasts — Notre Dame’s winning touchdown against Toledo was scored on Twitter before the ball was snapped on Peacock — made some viewers irate.

Still, Swarbrick insists Notre Dame should lead in streaming, even if the path is unmarked. He sees value in the shoulder programming Notre Dame and NBC can produce around games, although that material could exist on Peacock while games remain on NBC. The Blue-Gold Game was streamed exclusively the past three years. Swarbrick isn’t sure what to make of the data Peacock generates but believes there’s value in knowing exactly who’s watching and for how long as Notre Dame attempts to better connect with its “customers” moving forward.

“We learned a lot and the benefits are clear, but the dynamic that we all see is that’s where this is headed,” Swarbrick said. “ESPN is talking about taking the entire ESPN direct to consumer. I don’t know whether Peacock will be NBC in five years. It may be.”

If Notre Dame can generate subscribers for Peacock by streaming, it can drive NBC ratings by scheduling more Big Ten opponents, essentially creating college football inventory for the network by adding home-and-home dates with the conference. Ohio State or USC visiting Notre Dame would still be an NBC property, but suddenly the return dates could be NBC broadcasts thanks to the new Big Ten deal. NBC will pay nearly $350 million per year to broadcast 15 league games. Every one of those that involves Notre Dame would represent a ratings win.

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In the past 10 seasons, Notre Dame has faced 14 Big Ten opponents during the regular season. Those games averaged 5.21 millions viewers. They finished No. 1 on their weekend four times. The only games that didn’t finish in the top five on their respective weekends involved Northwestern. Those games were sixth.

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Swarbrick cautioned it’s not as simple as every Big Ten road game adding value to NBC, but it would enhance the collection of games NBC could draft as part of its prime-time package with the Big Ten. Fox and CBS could also conceivably draft Notre Dame games. The question is how aggressive Notre Dame may get in scheduling if better opponents can create value for its own broadcast agreement.

Would the expanded College Football Playoff make Notre Dame more open to scheduling because losses became less punitive? Could Notre Dame rethink rivalries with Stanford or Navy? Does a singular “buy game” become the norm, meaning it’s Tennessee State or Central Michigan, not both?

“I’d question if they’re willing to schedule more Big Ten schools,” Mao said. “That helps prop up the broadcast value for both sides, but coaches have to think about their record, too. That’s the question Pete Bevacqua is going to have to balance.”

Notre Dame has road games scheduled at Purdue in 2024, 2026 and 2028. The Irish also have future road games scheduled against Michigan State, Indiana and Michigan.

Considering the Big Ten inventory already scheduled, it’s not clear how much Notre Dame could enhance a negotiating position that it’s already strengthened for NBC. However, If the Irish can average $10 million per home game — less than what NBC will pay the Big Ten per broadcast — to go with auxiliary income from the ACC, it could put Notre Dame where it needs to be financially.

“The acquisition of the Big Ten rights for NBC reflected a level of commitment to college football which is really good for us,” Swarbrick said. “Everything about that, having more college football inventory, being able to cross-promote against Notre Dame with the Big Ten, some of the scheduling things we’ll do, that was for me an important sign of their commitment to college football that is good for us.”

That’s the hard math for Notre Dame. But there’s soft power in the NBC deal, too.

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How NBC helps Notre Dame

Kyle Rudolph had never been in a booth before.

Naturally, Notre Dame Stadium was a good place to start.

That’s not how most networks train new analysts. They’re typically put through the paces of calling a recorded game in a studio far from the general public’s eyes or ears. Rudolph figured he’d get his reps that way before jumping into USFL work. Instead, NBC put the former Notre Dame tight end and 12-year NFL veteran into the same broadcast booth once occupied by Tony Dungy, Drew Brees and Mike Mayock.

“I wouldn’t recommend your first broadcast being a spring game,” Rudolph said. “It was certainly an experience.”

It’s also exactly the kind Notre Dame and NBC have created for one another during the past decade as broadcast opportunities have increased, no longer limited by time slots or even broadcast television itself. NBC Sports Network became Peacock. And Notre Dame’s in-house media arm — Fighting Irish Media — evolved beyond press conferences and coaches shows. The resulting symbiosis has seen NBC serve Notre Dame and vice versa.

Notre Dame has pushed for alumni to get broadcasting opportunities — the school pitched Kyle Hamilton as sideline reporter for the spring game — and found a receptive partner in NBC. And the network’s production chops have helped Notre Dame’s own video team do more on the video board while giving players branding opportunities on national television.

It went as far as Mike Tirico sitting in on a Notre Dame broadcast journalism class for three hours, critiquing his call of the Clemson game in 2020 before helping sophomores and juniors improve their calls of Irish soccer.

“That’s something literally no other school and network can offer,” said play-by-play announcer Tony Simeone, who called the Blue-Gold Game with Rudolph. He also does Irish coaches shows and calls Notre Dame men’s basketball.

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This part of the NBC relationship matters to Notre Dame but doesn’t show up in the financial terms of the contract. NBC is open to Notre Dame’s suggestions, no matter how much it attempts to be objective in calling the games themselves. And Notre Dame understands the power of the pulpit, from Lou Holtz’s run at ESPN to Brady Quinn at Fox, to the bench of Notre Dame alumni working in the NBC ecosystem.

“It’s hard to overstate its importance, because we’re seeing the benefits of it,” Swarbrick said. “They have a feel for Notre Dame, they have an understanding, they have some passion for it. Doesn’t change their objectivity. But, gosh, it’s great to have your people doing that.”

In some cases, NBC’s people become Notre Dame people as an extension of the contract. Former NBC Sports president Ken Schanzer sent three children to Notre Dame. Former NBC Sports chairman Dick Ebersol sent his son Charlie to Notre Dame. Bevacqua is a Notre Dame graduate and former football walk-on. His father also graduated from the university. Swarbrick’s daughter Kate has worked in creative partnerships for Peacock. And Notre Dame alumnus Jac Collinsworth replaced Tirico in the booth last season at 27 years old.

Rudolph, whose NBC connections began in the U.S. Army All-American Bowl as a five-star prospect, doesn’t hide from the fact that without Notre Dame, the doors at NBC wouldn’t have opened quite as wide, if they opened at all.

“One-hundred percent. It was without question the reason why,” Rudolph said. “I’m an anomaly, played 12 years in the NFL before starting my next chapter, but Notre Dame was still there opening doors and giving me opportunities.”

Rudolph said he’ll call select Big Ten games for NBC this fall, steps toward a life after playing football. It’s the kind of path Notre Dame wants designed. It’s one NBC hopes to pave.

“We always love giving the Notre Dame student-athletes opportunities on these kinds of broadcasts,” said senior associate producer Ryan Burke, who produced the spring game and handles replays during the fall. “I’ve never heard of it with one school and one network like we have. It’s definitely something unique in the industry.”

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The economics of this familiarity may be hard to quantify, but Notre Dame and NBC place value on it just the same. Still, what will drive a college program and national network to extend this 30-plus-year marriage won’t be rapport or collegiality. It will be the money, the kind Notre Dame needs to remain independent, and an investment NBC could make to keep the Irish that way.

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On the first weekend of November last fall, NBC billed its lineup as “Big Event Weekend” starting with the Breeder’s Cup into Notre Dame on Saturday, followed by NASCAR and Sunday Night Football with the Titans visiting the Chiefs. As the crews reconvened in New York after the fact, they wondered which big event was the biggest. Notre Dame’s blowout of Clemson didn’t come close to Kansas City’s overtime win over Tennessee, which got nearly 18 million viewers.

But as NBC reflected on the field storming the enveloped Marcus Freeman and the imagery created, it was hard to argue which moment would stand up over time. It was a scene that reminded NBC why it coveted Notre Dame football in the first place and why Notre Dame desired the national television reach of NBC.

“You get this game against a perennially No. 1 team and an upset or big game like that happens, you can’t beat that,” Burke said. “That’s why this contract is awesome.”

Editor’s note: This story is part of The Athletic’s Realignment Revisited series, digging into the past, present and future of conference realignment in college sports. Follow the series and find more conference realignment stories here.

(Top illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; photos: Jonathan Ferrey and G Fiume /Getty Images)

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