Now that the MLB Draft takes place during the All-Star break, rather than in early June, this is perfect timing for a midseason update to my annual Twins top prospects list that was published in January.
We can add their new draftees to the mix, examine first-half performances and wave goodbye to the former prospects who graduated to the big leagues and are no longer eligible for the list (by virtue of surpassing 50 innings or 130 at-bats in their MLB careers). It’s also good timing ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, as the Twins figure to be buyers and selling teams will be targeting their prospects.
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Royce Lewis (No. 2 on the January list), Edouard Julien (No. 6), Louie Varland (No. 7) and Jovani Moran (No. 16) have graduated to the majors and shed their prospect labels. That doesn’t make them any more or less valuable to the Twins, and it doesn’t change the team’s future outlook, but it does mean four promising young players are no longer technically part of their farm system.
Here is my updated midseason ranking of the Twins’ top 20 prospects.
1. Brooks Lee, SS
Aggressively assigned to Double-A Wichita to start his first full season, Lee has cemented his status as a top-50 prospect, batting .279/.358/.468 with 38 extra-base hits in 75 games. Those raw numbers may not jump off the page, but keep in mind Brooks Lee is 22 years old in a league where the average pitcher is 25. He’s faced a pitcher older than him in 334 of 343 plate appearances.
Lee has out-hit the league-wide OPS by 78 points, and his strike-zone control is especially impressive with 37 walks and just 58 strikeouts. He’s a disciplined switch hitter with gap power from both sides, and he’s shown signs of further power potential with several tape-measure homers. So far so good for last year’s first-round pick, who continues to play shortstop and profile best at third base.
TIE BALL GAME!
Brooks Lee rocketed this ball 407 feet for a solo home run and tied the ball game up!
B4: Wichita 1 | Springfield 1 pic.twitter.com/EeJ5n55avO
— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) July 16, 2023
2. Walker Jenkins, CF
There’s certainly an argument for slotting Walker Jenkins ahead of Lee right away, and the No. 5 pick in the just-completed draft may appear ahead of last year’s No. 8 pick on most national lists, but I’m generally conservative ranking newly drafted players before they at least have some pro experience to evaluate. I took that approach in waiting to put Lee above an injured Lewis last summer.
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Jenkins has immense upside and would have been a No. 1 pick candidate in a less-stacked draft class, but he’s also 18 years old and there’s no harm in seeing him knock around some pro pitchers before displacing a legit No. 1 prospect in Lee. Jenkins is a smooth-swinging lefty slugger with good speed, a strong arm and the all-around tools to be an MVP candidate if he develops as hoped.
Getting a look at OF Walker Jenkins (N.C.) tonight and he’s got a couple of hard hit balls after two ABs including this no-doubt HR to right-center. pic.twitter.com/PEyikwiGT8
— Carlos Collazo (@CarlosACollazo) March 15, 2023
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
It’s difficult to evaluate Emmanuel Rodriguez’s first half because of the extreme nature of his performance. Returning from a knee injury that cost him much of last season, Rodriguez jumped up to High-A Cedar Rapids, where he’s out-hit the league-wide OPS by 89 points as a 20-year-old. His combo of patience (52 walks) and power (10 homers) is almost unheard of for such a young hitter.
On the other hand, his .212 batting average and 86 strikeouts in 59 games are bright red flags for a low-minors prospect. Rodriguez absolutely must improve his contact skills to fully unlock his upside, but his plate approach is elite and the ball explodes off the bat when he connects. Already a top-100 prospect, his ceiling is as high as anyone in the organization.
Absolute moonshot from Emmanuel Rodriguez last night ☄️
110mph, 35°, 420ft💥
His 7th home run of the season. pic.twitter.com/0UXin0A18X
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) June 10, 2023
4. Matt Wallner, RF
Jose Miranda’s injury finally got Matt Wallner back in the majors despite the Twins being unwilling to push aside the struggling veterans blocking him on the corner outfield depth chart. Wallner has pummeled Triple-A pitching all year, batting .291/.403/.524 with 34 extra-base hits and 39 walks in 67 games. And when given a chance with the Twins, he’s hit .368/.520/.579 in 11 games.
Strikeouts are a weakness, but his Triple-A rate is a somewhat manageable 28.1 percent, lower than Trevor Larnach (31.3) and Brent Rooker (30.7) at the same level. Wallner has huge lefty power and a fairly disciplined approach. His bulky 6-foot-4 frame leads to outfield misadventures, but he’s faster than he looks and has one of the best arms in baseball, a true weapon that shuts down runners.
From @Matt_Wallner: An ode to #MNTwins fans. I crush a lot. Home run number 2 on the night, his 11th of the season. Lead 10-5 bottom 7. pic.twitter.com/hEwoFgIUnS
— St. Paul Saints (@StPaulSaints) June 30, 2023
5. Marco Raya, RHP
Handled very carefully since being a 2020 fourth-round pick out of high school, Marco Raya has logged a grand total of 104 innings in 32 career games. Yet the Twins have also promoted him very aggressively, moving Raya up to Double-A Wichita before his 21st birthday. They’re clearly attempting to limit the slight, 6-foot-1 right-hander’s workload, but he’s the Texas League’s youngest pitcher.
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Raya combines mid-90s fastball velocity with three polished, quality off-speed pitches, posting a 3.02 ERA and 122-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio overall. He’s on the fast track to the majors and it’s possible he gets there next season having thrown fewer than 200 innings in the minors. Twins officials have been touting Raya since the moment they drafted him, and it’s becoming easier to see why.
SWING AND A MISS!
Marco Raya just struck out the first batter he faced in his AA debut for the Wind Surge!
B1: Wichita 0 | Tulsa 0 pic.twitter.com/nf3CchfklB
— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) July 8, 2023
6. David Festa, RHP
Chosen as the Twins’ lone rep for the Futures Game, David Festa threw a scoreless inning while showing his mid-90s fastball, power slider and solid changeup. Formerly a soft-tossing 13th-round pick from Seton Hall, the Twins have turned the 6-foot-6 right-hander into a potential mid-rotation starter with 74 strikeouts in 59 innings at Double-A Wichita.
7. Tanner Schobel, 2B/3B
Drafted in the second round out of Virginia Tech last year, Tanner Schobel had a rough pro debut and then started slowly at High-A Cedar Rapids this season. He’s been on fire since May 1, hitting .310/.393/.528 with 11 homers and good strike-zone control in 58 games, showing impact bat upside. Schobel has played some shortstop, but the 22-year-old profiles best at second base or third base.
8. Charlee Soto, RHP
After lucking into Jenkins at No. 5, the Twins drafted Charlee Soto at No. 34, betting on the 6-foot-5 high school right-hander’s breakout senior season. New to full-time pitching after outgrowing shortstop, he impressed with a high-90s fastball, two good off-speed pitches and the ability to throw them all for strikes at age 17. Soto won’t move quickly, but there’s no shortage of upside.
9. Austin Martin, 2B/CF
Sidelined for three months after a spring training elbow injury, Austin Martin recently joined Triple-A St. Paul. His stock has plummeted since being the No. 5 pick in 2020 and the headline prospect in the José Berríos trade, but Martin is still just 24. If healthy, he has the bat-to-ball skills, patience and speed to work his way into the Twins’ plans at second base, center field or a super-utility role.
10. Yasser Mercedes, CF
Signed for $1.7 million as the Twins’ headline pickup in the 2022 international class, Yasser Mercedes is making his stateside debut in the rookie-level Florida Complex League. He displayed five-tool potential last season in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .355 with 30 steals in 41 games. Mercedes is a raw 18-year-old, but he has one of the system’s highest ceilings if everything clicks.
11. Cory Lewis, RHP
Cory Lewis had a high-80s fastball and poor control at UC Santa Barbara, but the Twins drafted him in the ninth round last summer and have already turned the 6-foot-5 right-hander into a legit prospect. He’s throwing 92-94 mph, with a rapidly-improving changeup and a mid-80s knuckleball that’s part of his regular mix. Lewis has a 2.29 ERA and 81 strikeouts in his first 63 innings.
Cory Lewis is nasty👀
5 IP / 2 H / 1 R / 2 BB / 9 K
Lewis had a 53% whiff rate across his 5 pitches yesterday and is striking out 47.2% of hitters since joining the @CRKernels in High-A. His season ERA is down to 2.37🔥#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/S2eFTXtPu9
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) June 15, 2023
12. Luke Keaschall, 2B
Minnesota’s third top-50 pick in the just-completed draft, Arizona State second baseman Luke Keaschall hit .353/.443/.725 with 18 homers in 55 games for the Pac-12’s fourth-best OPS. Those totals likely overstate the 20-year-old’s power potential, but Keaschall also whiffed only 28 times, and he’s a good athlete with above-average speed who should be able to handle multiple positions.
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13. Jose Rodriguez, RF
Jose Rodriguez was the slugging thunder to Mercedes’ toolsy lightning in the 2022 international class, a prototypical power-hitting corner outfielder making his stateside debut after putting up nice numbers in the Dominican Summer League last season. Rodriguez’s defensive limitations mean his bat will have to carry him to the majors.
14. Connor Prielipp, LHP
Once a potential top-10 pick, Connor Prielipp fell to the Twins in the second round last year because he was rehabbing from Tommy John elbow surgery. He pitched just twice this season before needing another surgery. Prielipp has high-octane raw stuff, including a mid-90s fastball and an elite slider, but it’s tough to consider the left-hander a top prospect until he can stay on the mound.
15. Kala’i Rosario, RF
Kala’i Rosario has always had lots of raw power and the 2020 fifth-round pick has added plate discipline in his age-20 season, hitting .274/.383/.480 with 12 homers and 46 walks in 75 games as one of the youngest hitters in the pitcher-friendly High-A Midwest League. He’s outproduced the league-wide OPS by 172 points or 25 percent. And as a poor outfielder, he’ll need to keep mashing.
Kala'i Rosario has his fifth home run of the season. pic.twitter.com/5Vp47baYOX
— Tom Froemming (@TFTwins) May 26, 2023
16. Jordan Balazovic, RHP
Jordan Balazovic has halted his stock crashing by getting healthy after an injury-wrecked 2022 season, shaking off a spring training broken jaw and transitioning to the bullpen with encouraging early results. His control comes and goes, and he’ll need to have a go-to secondary pitch emerge from his slider, curveball and changeup, but Balazovic’s mid-90s fastball looks pretty good in relief so far.
17. C.J. Culpepper, RHP
One of the system’s main first-half risers, C.J. Culpepper is thriving at High-A Cedar Rapids a year after being a 13th-round pick from California Baptist. His velocity was inconsistent when starting in college, but the Twins have him working in the mid-90s as part of a deep, five-pitch mix. Culpepper has a 1.88 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 57 innings overall.
18. Danny De Andrade, SS
Signed for $2.2 million as a 16-year-old and now facing full-season competition as a 19-year-old, Danny De Andrade has more than held his own in 68 games at Low-A Fort Myers, batting .243/.362/.390 with seven homers and a team-high 42 walks. He’s playing shortstop full-time this season and has a chance to stick there, but may profile better at third base as he fills out physically.
19. Zebby Matthews, RHP
Zebby Matthews, like Lewis and Culpepper, was a softer-tossing college starter snagged in the middle rounds of the 2022 draft who has added velocity with the Twins. He’s got an amazing 83-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 73 total innings, but the strike-throwing machine has been a lot more hittable since a promotion to High-A Cedar Rapids. His raw stuff will be tested higher up the ladder.
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20. DaShawn Keirsey, CF
One of the Twins’ fastest players and an elite defender, DaShawn Keirsey’s left-handed bat has improved enough to raise his profile from backup outfielder to a possible platoon regular in center field. He’s hit .307/.361/.482 with 11 homers and 28 steals in 77 games for Double-A Wichita, a late-blooming 2018 fourth-round pick who looks very intriguing at age 26.
ABSOLUTELY NUKED! 🤯
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. just hit this ball 420 feet that bounced off the building for a solo home run!
B5: Wichita 2 | Springfield 0 pic.twitter.com/F9krbbNiVF
— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) July 15, 2023
(Photo of Walker Jenkins courtesy of Team USA Baseball)
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